Consensus PnL -$595 · win rate 51% (775–747, n=1522) · was PM monthly #941 · holds 62 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
-$595.44
Record
775W / 747L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 1522 settled
Batting Avg
47.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1782
Source
PM monthly #941
Record (90 d)
496/971 · 51%
Trades
856
Markets
2,100
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
62 in listed consensus markets · 40 of 62 on the consensus side (65%)- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $1.2K · now 62¢ · in at 79¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $930 · now 93¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (61% of 46)
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes $899 · now 28¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes $779 · now 63¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (No)
- Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?No $671 · now 66¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (40% of 10)
- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $475 · now 48¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (77% of 53)
- Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes $449 · now 90¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
- Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?No $435 · now 88¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
859 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 54¢- Tennis
+22 pts
side won 74% of 19 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +11%
- College Basketball
+17 pts
side won 54% of 24 · avg entry 37¢
ROI −1%
- Mentions
+2 pts
side won 58% of 106 · avg entry 56¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 77% of 83 at an average 79¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 32%(won 10% of 271)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 45% of 109)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 63% of 143)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 90% of 336)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.