Consensus PnL -$1.4K · win rate 50% (280–284, n=564) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-1.4K
Record
280W / 284L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 564 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1876
Source
PM monthly #1000
Record (90 d)
74/92 · 80%
Trades
218
Markets
697
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?No $68K · now 85¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No $40K · now 67¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes $1.7K · now 96¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
Specialties
599 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 53¢- Esports
+8 pts
side won 59% of 90 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +8%
- Tennis
+9 pts
side won 58% of 65 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +6%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 55% of 75 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 41% of 98 at an average 50¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −20%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 25% of 61)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 42% of 224)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 57% of 199)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 79% of 115)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.