Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $73K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
6
No 67%
$73.4K
$5.8K
80.6¢ → 84.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 85%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
4897h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fleeth | Noavg 81¢ | $775.17 | $67.6K | +$5.4K | 51% 345-329 (674) |
 alanhutton | Noavg 71.5¢ | $1.7K | $3.2K | +$416.97 | 68% 340-161 (501) |
LA Lasting-Dessert | Noavg 82¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$62.5 | 89% 564-67 (631) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $315 | $232.5 | -$82.5 | 57% 16909-12683 (29592) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 76.2¢ | $173.47 | $191.92 | +$18.45 | 77% 11697-3588 (15285) |
IN insideroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $31 | $15.5 | -$15.5 | 76% 292-93 (385) |
fleethInvested
$775.17
Value
$67.6K
PnL
+$5.4K
Record
51%
345-329 (674)
alanhuttonInvested
$1,721.9
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$416.97
Record
68%
340-161 (501)
Invested
$2,050
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$62.5
Record
89%
564-67 (631)
Invested
$315
Value
$232.5
PnL
-$82.5
Record
57%
16909-12683 (29592)
Invested
$173.47
Value
$191.92
PnL
+$18.45
Record
77%
11697-3588 (15285)
Invested
$31
Value
$15.5
PnL
-$15.5
Record
76%
292-93 (385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.