Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 76% (179–56, n=235) · hand-picked wallet · holds 56 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.9K
Record
179W / 56L
Win Rate
76.0%
of 235 settled
Batting Avg
73.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#551
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
5,931
Markets
476
Volume
$487.5K
Top consensus positions
56 in listed consensus markets · 47 of 56 on the consensus side (84%)- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No $15K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $5.1K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 25)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $4.0K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No $3.8K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (89% of 27)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $3.4K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (94% of 47)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $2.9K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $2.8K · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $1.9K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
Specialties
279 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 83¢- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 94% of 108 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +4%
- Mentions
+17 pts
side won 90% of 30 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +10%
- Elections
+8 pts
side won 95% of 64 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 20% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 71% of 17)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 92% of 24)
- 70¢ and up: 82%(won 98% of 228)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.