Fetterman leaves the Democrats before the midterms?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$6.0K
$126.56
94.6¢ → 99.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
502h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FU Fulgurator | Noavg 96.1¢ | $4.9K | $5.0K | +$170.65 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Noavg 91¢ | $477.38 | $521.7 | +$44.33 | 67% 751-378 (1129) |
 yen4u | Noavg 80.4¢ | $305.4 | $377.91 | +$72.51 | 86% 809-136 (945) |
 bernardbulletinCTR | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $158.65 | $8.36 | -$150.29 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
 AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $11.55 | $0.91 | -$10.64 | 83% 3802-802 (4604) |
Invested
$4,876.33
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$170.65
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
Invested
$477.38
Value
$521.7
PnL
+$44.33
Record
67%
751-378 (1129)
yen4uInvested
$305.4
Value
$377.91
PnL
+$72.51
Record
86%
809-136 (945)
bernardbulletinCTRInvested
$158.65
Value
$8.36
PnL
-$150.29
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100Invested
$11.55
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$10.64
Record
83%
3802-802 (4604)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.