Consensus PnL $216K · win rate 85% (3945–703, n=4648) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 25 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$216.2K
Record
3945W / 703L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 4648 settled
Batting Avg
41.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#334
Source
PM monthly #996
Trades
2,781
Markets
5,340
Volume
$40.9M
Top consensus positions
25 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 25 on the consensus side (20%)- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $2.6K · now 4¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (No)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?No $1.1K · now 26¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $1.0K · now 49¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (61% of 28)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $600 · now 30¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $580 · now 6¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (97% of 32)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $450 · now 20¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $440 · now 89¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (57% of 55)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $350 · now 35¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
4,314 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 80¢- NFL
+7 pts
side won 88% of 109 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +1%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 74% of 333 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +1%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 82% of 277 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 90% of 108 at an average 90¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 12% of 653)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 48% of 186)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 67% of 175)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 99% of 3300)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.