Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.2K
-$58.19
94.7¢ → 94.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
1359h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Noavg 95.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$15.47 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 94.7¢ | $1.0K | $952.69 | -$53.52 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 Talophex | Noavg 89.2¢ | $223 | $236.25 | +$13.25 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 3648393489047CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $13.82 | $12.6 | -$1.23 | 61% 1133-714 (1847) |
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $6.73 | $6.63 | -$0.1 | 67% 751-378 (1129) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $2.39 | $1.27 | -$1.13 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
Invested
$1,048.8
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$15.47
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$1,006.21
Value
$952.69
PnL
-$53.52
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
TalophexInvested
$223
Value
$236.25
PnL
+$13.25
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
3648393489047CTR<$100Invested
$13.82
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$1.23
Record
61%
1133-714 (1847)
Invested
$6.73
Value
$6.63
PnL
-$0.1
Record
67%
751-378 (1129)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$2.39
Value
$1.27
PnL
-$1.13
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.