Consensus PnL -$70K · win rate 64% (1178–666, n=1844) · was PM monthly #982 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-70.3K
Record
1178W / 666L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 1844 settled
Batting Avg
42.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#967
Source
PM monthly #982
Trades
1,610
Markets
2,225
Volume
$25.2M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Yandex $3.9K · now 57¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (65% of 66)
- Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?No $1.5K · now 25¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No $1.1K · now 28¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?Yes $13 · now 6¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,907 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 62¢- Esports
+3 pts
side won 63% of 779 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +1%
- MMA
+8 pts
side won 73% of 89 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+2 pts
side won 75% of 106 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 52% of 46 at an average 65¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 10% of 240)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 34% of 278)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 65% of 618)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 90% of 771)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.