Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold India, while the market favors New Zealand (53%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold India (71%) · India at 48¢ · $481 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
India
7
India 71%
$480.77
$0.16
50.6¢ → 47.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralIndia at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors New Zealand 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+31 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on India. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | New Zealandavg 48¢ | $168.17 | $182.69 | +$14.52 | 30% 379-865 (1244) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Indiaavg 51.8¢ | $164.28 | $150.71 | -$13.57 | 51% 1833-1786 (3619) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | New Zealandavg 48¢ | $42.9 | $44.92 | +$2.02 | 31% 378-844 (1222) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Indiaavg 47¢ | $38.52 | $38.93 | +$0.41 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Indiaavg 51.5¢ | $37.93 | $35.01 | -$2.92 | 37% 341-573 (914) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Indiaavg 48¢ | $19.2 | $19 | -$0.2 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Indiaavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $9.5 | -$0.1 | 30% 373-867 (1240) |
Invested
$168.17
Value
$182.69
PnL
+$14.52
Record
30%
379-865 (1244)
Invested
$164.28
Value
$150.71
PnL
-$13.57
Record
51%
1833-1786 (3619)
Invested
$42.9
Value
$44.92
PnL
+$2.02
Record
31%
378-844 (1222)
Invested
$38.52
Value
$38.93
PnL
+$0.41
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$37.93
Value
$35.01
PnL
-$2.92
Record
37%
341-573 (914)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$19
PnL
-$0.2
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
30%
373-867 (1240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.