Spread: Vietnam (-2.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Chinese Taipei (50%) · Chinese Taipei at 67¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Vietnam34¢Chinese Taipei66¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chinese Taipei

Consensus Traders

Chinese Taipei 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$345.9

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 66.5¢

+31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralChinese Taipei at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chinese Taipei

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Vietnam34%

Chinese Taipei67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chinese Taipei3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,254

Combined PnL+$339.01

Vietnam3 traders

Total Value$98.75

Total Shares154

Combined PnL+$6.88

Chinese Taipei — 50%Vietnam — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Chinese Taipei. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChinese Taipei 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Chinese Taipei 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Chinese Taipeiavg 50.4¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$354.17	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Chinese Taipeiavg 52.3¢	$85.33	$74.98	-$10.35	41% 257-376 (633)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Vietnamavg 44¢	$39.83	$48.88	+$9.05	30% 372-863 (1235)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Vietnamavg 52.7¢	$47.04	$44.88	-$2.17	37% 340-569 (909)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Chinese Taipeiavg 56¢	$26.94	$22.13	-$4.81	45% 262-316 (578)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Vietnamavg 54¢	$5	$4.99	-$0	41% 3118-4481 (7599)

Flaznorp

Chinese Taipei

Invested

$1,824.62

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$354.17

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Chinese Taipei

Invested

$85.33

Value

$74.98

PnL

-$10.35

Record

41%

257-376 (633)

LimousinCTR<$100

Vietnam

Invested

$39.83

Value

$48.88

PnL

+$9.05

Record

30%

372-863 (1235)

sentrioCTR<$100

Vietnam

Invested

$47.04

Value

$44.88

PnL

-$2.17

Record

37%

340-569 (909)

SnakeBall<$100

Chinese Taipei

Invested

$26.94

Value

$22.13

PnL

-$4.81

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Vietnam

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

3118-4481 (7599)

Research grade

NeutralChinese Taipei at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chinese Taipei

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Chinese Taipei. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChinese Taipei 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Chinese Taipei 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chinese Taipei wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.