Will Chinese Taipei win on 2026-11-11?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $229 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$228.75
$1.65
93.8¢ → 95.3¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.1¢ | $171.77 | $172.69 | +$0.91 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $41.66 | $41.61 | -$0.04 | 26% 228-657 (885) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $4.72 | $4.73 | +$0.01 | 26% 230-647 (877) |
BL BlackMamba08<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $4.73 | +$0.98 | — |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $2.85 | $2.72 | -$0.13 | 50% 1423-1425 (2848) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $2.07 | $2 | -$0.07 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $0.28 | $0.27 | -$0.01 | 31% 176-393 (569) |
Invested
$171.77
Value
$172.69
PnL
+$0.91
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$41.66
Value
$41.61
PnL
-$0.04
Record
26%
228-657 (885)
Invested
$4.72
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0.01
Record
26%
230-647 (877)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0.98
Record
—
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
1423-1425 (2848)
Invested
$2.07
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.07
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$0.01
Record
31%
176-393 (569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.