Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (70%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Le Mans FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 30¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
1 arb excluded
$21.4K
$1.6K
49.9¢ → 30¢
-40% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $12.7K | $12.4K | -$382 | 48% 405-446 (851) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 48.9¢ | $3.3K | $4.0K | +$701.88 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 48.9¢ | $2.7K | $3.9K | +$1.2K | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
 RN1 | Underavg 53¢ | $455.84 | $607.77 | +$151.93 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Underavg 64.5¢ | $259.18 | $252.83 | -$6.34 | 55% 3814-3145 (6959) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 64.5¢ | $161.25 | $175 | +$13.75 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 37.7¢ | $97.93 | $77.83 | -$20.09 | |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 43.3¢ | $212.98 | $163.07 | -$49.91 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
AR ARocky33 | Underavg 68¢ | $127.2 | $117.2 | -$10 | 76% 4579-1422 (6001) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $15.5 | $15.04 | -$0.46 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$12,733.47
Value
$12.4K
PnL
-$382
Record
48%
405-446 (851)
Invested
$3,343.91
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$701.88
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$2,722.59
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
RN1Invested
$455.84
Value
$607.77
PnL
+$151.93
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$259.18
Value
$252.83
PnL
-$6.34
Record
55%
3814-3145 (6959)
Both legs:
Invested
$212.98
Value
$163.07
PnL
-$49.91
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$127.2
Value
$117.2
PnL
-$10
Record
76%
4579-1422 (6001)
Invested
$15.5
Value
$15.04
PnL
-$0.46
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.