OGC Nice vs. Le Mans FC: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 55¢ · $631 held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$631.44
-$98.44
64.6¢ → 55.5¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR ARocky33 | Yesavg 68.5¢ | $496.75 | $402.38 | -$94.37 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 58¢ | $139.12 | $133.13 | -$6 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
US User7429<$100 | Yesavg 54.1¢ | $62 | $63.57 | +$1.57 | 56% 8920-7126 (16046) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $19.58 | $19.8 | +$0.22 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $12.42 | $12.56 | +$0.14 | 53% 16515-14663 (31178) |
Invested
$496.75
Value
$402.38
PnL
-$94.37
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
RN1Invested
$139.12
Value
$133.13
PnL
-$6
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$62
Value
$63.57
PnL
+$1.57
Record
56%
8920-7126 (16046)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$19.8
PnL
+$0.22
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
Invested
$12.42
Value
$12.56
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
16515-14663 (31178)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.