Toulouse FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Over38¢Under62¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$17.13

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 62.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,787

Combined PnL-$1.64

Over4 traders

Total Value$405.39

Total Shares1,142

Combined PnL-$15.48

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 64.4¢	$725.96	$721.27	-$4.69	51% 26319-24948 (51267)
DA darkumbreon88	Underavg 64¢	$406.22	$409.39	+$3.17	64% 2011-1118 (3129)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 37.2¢	$148.61	$142	-$2	46% 8687-10361 (19048)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 37.2¢	$137.86	$131.73	-$6.13	50% 1585-1603 (3188)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 37.2¢	$92.78	$88.66	-$4.13	49% 1598-1632 (3230)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 38.2¢	$46.23	$43	-$3.23	51% 1640-1550 (3190)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 63¢	$9.45	$9.38	-$0.07	54% 10092-8474 (18566)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 63¢	$6.3	$6.25	-$0.05	52% 8844-8038 (16882)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$725.96

Value

$721.27

PnL

-$4.69

Record

51%

26319-24948 (51267)

darkumbreon88

Under

Invested

$406.22

Value

$409.39

PnL

+$3.17

Record

64%

2011-1118 (3129)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$148.61

Value

$142

PnL

-$2

Record

46%

8687-10361 (19048)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$137.86

Value

$131.73

PnL

-$6.13

Record

50%

1585-1603 (3188)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.78

Value

$88.66

PnL

-$4.13

Record

49%

1598-1632 (3230)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.23

Value

$43

PnL

-$3.23

Record

51%

1640-1550 (3190)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.38

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

10092-8474 (18566)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8844-8038 (16882)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.