Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Pau FC vs. FC Nantes end in a draw?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 26¢ · $547 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$546.81
-$81.67
26.8¢ → 25.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $326.31 | $288.92 | -$37.4 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 98.7¢ | $165.91 | $125.29 | -$40.62 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $86.81 | $68.21 | -$18.6 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $2.39 | $26.49 | +$24.1 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $23.46 | $17.69 | -$5.78 | 48% 1776-1912 (3688) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $20.8 | $17.67 | -$3.14 | 50% 21821-22062 (43883) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $2.8 | $2.55 | -$0.25 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
Invested
$326.31
Value
$288.92
PnL
-$37.4
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$165.91
Value
$125.29
PnL
-$40.62
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Invested
$86.81
Value
$68.21
PnL
-$18.6
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$2.39
Value
$26.49
PnL
+$24.1
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$23.46
Value
$17.69
PnL
-$5.78
Record
48%
1776-1912 (3688)
Invested
$20.8
Value
$17.67
PnL
-$3.14
Record
50%
21821-22062 (43883)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.25
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.