Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 2?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $514 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$514
$70.98
85.8¢ → 99.9¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f | Noavg 84.2¢ | $280.81 | $332.99 | +$52.35 | 58% 1615-1157 (2772) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $20.61 | $133.5 | +$15.64 | 36% 635-1125 (1760) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $34.44 | $37.51 | +$3.09 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $9.1 | $9.99 | -$0.1 | 60% 2354-1539 (3893) |
Invested
$280.81
Value
$332.99
PnL
+$52.35
Record
58%
1615-1157 (2772)
Invested
$20.61
Value
$133.5
PnL
+$15.64
Record
36%
635-1125 (1760)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$34.44
Value
$37.51
PnL
+$3.09
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$0.1
Record
60%
2354-1539 (3893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.