Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 3?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 74¢ · $20 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$19.52
$0.05
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $6.61 | $8.59 | +$0.41 | 35% 563-1048 (1611) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $4.8 | $4.65 | -$0.15 | 54% 7725-6471 (14196) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $3.29 | $3.19 | -$0.1 | 35% 711-1330 (2041) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $3.1 | -$0.1 | 31% 1942-4361 (6303) |
Invested
$6.61
Value
$8.59
PnL
+$0.41
Record
35%
563-1048 (1611)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
7725-6471 (14196)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$3.19
PnL
-$0.1
Record
35%
711-1330 (2041)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$0.1
Record
31%
1942-4361 (6303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.