Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 1?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 97¢ · $648 held · ended Nov 1

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$647.86

Combined PnL

$266.07

Smart Money Entry

26.5¢ → 97.2¢

+267% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$645.86

Total Shares1,340

Combined PnL+$265.1

No1 trader

Total Value$2.01

Total Shares17

Combined PnL+$0.96

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 26.3¢	$267.18	$488.03	+$220.85	50% 675-675 (1350)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$56.13	$91.45	+$35.32	18% 366-1654 (2020)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 24.1¢	$45.11	$50.25	+$5.15	59% 1929-1356 (3285)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 31.2¢	$48.46	$11.42	+$2.29	53% 6697-5893 (12590)
fildoro<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$2.1	$4.7	+$1.5	62% 1447-905 (2352)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$27.82	$2.01	+$0.96	56% 14257-11059 (25316)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$267.18

Value

$488.03

PnL

+$220.85

Record

50%

675-675 (1350)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.13

Value

$91.45

PnL

+$35.32

Record

18%

366-1654 (2020)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.11

Value

$50.25

PnL

+$5.15

Record

59%

1929-1356 (3285)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.46

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$2.29

Record

53%

6697-5893 (12590)

fildoro<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$1.5

Record

62%

1447-905 (2352)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$27.82

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.96

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.