Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 1?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 32¢ · $670 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$669.55
$112.85
32.3¢ → 32¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 31.7¢ | $238.39 | $285.84 | +$70.02 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 59.9¢ | $236.67 | $225.08 | -$25.41 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $12.62 | $78.68 | +$66.06 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $53.96 | $54.78 | +$5.14 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 71.3¢ | $71.29 | $13.72 | -$4.76 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $9.65 | $11.46 | +$1.81 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
Invested
$238.39
Value
$285.84
PnL
+$70.02
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$236.67
Value
$225.08
PnL
-$25.41
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$12.62
Value
$78.68
PnL
+$66.06
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
Invested
$53.96
Value
$54.78
PnL
+$5.14
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
Invested
$71.29
Value
$13.72
PnL
-$4.76
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$9.65
Value
$11.46
PnL
+$1.81
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.