Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 2?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 32¢ · $505 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$505.03
$156.19
32.2¢ → 32¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $156.43 | $225.93 | -$42.76 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $12.88 | $209.45 | +$196.57 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $41.82 | $39.36 | -$0.62 | 58% 1615-1157 (2772) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $18.95 | $23.04 | +$2.65 | 60% 2354-1539 (3893) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $4.52 | $4.41 | -$0.12 | 54% 7712-6458 (14170) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $2.4 | $2.85 | +$0.45 | 37% 758-1274 (2032) |
Invested
$156.43
Value
$225.93
PnL
-$42.76
Record
53%
3389-3008 (6397)
IstarothCTRInvested
$12.88
Value
$209.45
PnL
+$196.57
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
Invested
$41.82
Value
$39.36
PnL
-$0.62
Record
58%
1615-1157 (2772)
Invested
$18.95
Value
$23.04
PnL
+$2.65
Record
60%
2354-1539 (3893)
Invested
$4.52
Value
$4.41
PnL
-$0.12
Record
54%
7712-6458 (14170)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$0.45
Record
37%
758-1274 (2032)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.