Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 1?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 14¢ · $859 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$858.56
$12.53
28.6¢ → 14.5¢
-49% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 70.9¢ | $661.19 | $667.48 | -$27.87 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.9¢ | $408.46 | $391.63 | -$3.18 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.6¢ | $297.96 | $275.85 | -$24.7 | |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.1¢ | $81.7 | $81.54 | +$3.66 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 72.6¢ | $57.49 | $56.6 | -$0.89 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $18.99 | $31.25 | +$8.85 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $20.78 | $21.69 | +$0.91 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
Invested
$661.19
Value
$667.48
PnL
-$27.87
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Both legs:
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$81.7
Value
$81.54
PnL
+$3.66
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Invested
$57.49
Value
$56.6
PnL
-$0.89
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$18.99
Value
$31.25
PnL
+$8.85
Record
50%
1907-1873 (3780)
Invested
$20.78
Value
$21.69
PnL
+$0.91
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.