Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 2?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 25¢ · $419 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$418.72
-$27.86
33.2¢ → 25¢
-25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 61¢ | $110.73 | $128.86 | +$25.6 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $141.9 | $120.21 | -$26.31 | 50% 673-674 (1347) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 60.9¢ | $92.52 | $103.66 | -$1.94 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $80.31 | $53.57 | -$26.74 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $10.88 | $12.41 | +$1.53 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
Invested
$110.73
Value
$128.86
PnL
+$25.6
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$141.9
Value
$120.21
PnL
-$26.31
Record
50%
673-674 (1347)
Invested
$92.52
Value
$103.66
PnL
-$1.94
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$80.31
Value
$53.57
PnL
-$26.74
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Invested
$10.88
Value
$12.41
PnL
+$1.53
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.