Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 1?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $764 held · ended Nov 1

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$763.62

Combined PnL

$57.7

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 89¢

+39% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$523.76

Total Shares666

Combined PnL+$55.22

Yes1 trader

Total Value$30.17

Total Shares63

Combined PnL+$2.48

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$175.48	$209.69	+$34.21	50% 673-674 (1347)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.9¢	$60.2	$107.39	+$28.7
└ No leg	Noavg 60.5¢	$79.4	$102.3	+$5.51
24 241532532432	Noavg 66.5¢	$165.82	$194.53	+$28.71	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
HE hello.67	Noavg 58.1¢	$171.16	$178	+$6.84	50% 1907-1873 (3780)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 66¢	$99.11	$117.13	+$14.27	54% 467-391 (858)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$28.69	$34.1	+$5.4	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.6¢	$27.69	$30.17	+$2.48	18% 365-1640 (2005)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$175.48

Value

$209.69

PnL

+$34.21

Record

50%

673-674 (1347)

Both legs:

Yes$60.226.9¢+$28.7

No$79.460.5¢+$5.51

241532532432

Invested

$165.82

Value

$194.53

PnL

+$28.71

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

hello.67

Invested

$171.16

Value

$178

PnL

+$6.84

Record

50%

1907-1873 (3780)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$99.11

Value

$117.13

PnL

+$14.27

Record

54%

467-391 (858)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.69

Value

$34.1

PnL

+$5.4

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.69

Value

$30.17

PnL

+$2.48

Record

18%

365-1640 (2005)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+30 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.