Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on November 4?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 99¢ · $179 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$179.43

Combined PnL

-$1.31

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$165.63

Total Shares167

Combined PnL-$1.03

Yes4 traders

Total Value$13.8

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.28

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.6¢	$146.88	$145.93	-$0.95	79% 11970-3164 (15134)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.06	$13.75	+$0.16	39% 976-1556 (2532)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$11.93	$11.89	-$0.04	30% 2124-4928 (7052)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$7.85	$7.81	-$0.04	38% 962-1579 (2541)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.02	$0.02	+$0	47% 1604-1792 (3396)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.01	39% 5316-8317 (13633)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.43	50% 481-480 (961)

Lucerys

Invested

$146.88

Value

$145.93

PnL

-$0.95

Record

79%

11970-3164 (15134)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$13.75

PnL

+$0.16

Record

39%

976-1556 (2532)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.93

Value

$11.89

PnL

-$0.04

Record

30%

2124-4928 (7052)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.85

Value

$7.81

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

962-1579 (2541)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1604-1792 (3396)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

39%

5316-8317 (13633)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.43

Record

50%

481-480 (961)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.