M25 Valencia: Aren Baybars vs Leonid Sheyngezikht
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Leonid Sheyngezikht (67%) · Leonid Sheyngezikht at 100¢ · $574 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Leonid Sheyngezikht
6
Leonid Sheyngezikht 67%
$574.2
$85.71
82.2¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralLeonid Sheyngezikht at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Leonid Sheyngezikht. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Leonid Sheyngezikhtavg 94.9¢ | $368.44 | $384.26 | +$15.82 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
FL Flaznorp | Leonid Sheyngezikhtavg 55.4¢ | $92.13 | $140.48 | +$48.35 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
 poshposh<$100 | Leonid Sheyngezikhtavg 48.6¢ | $17.56 | $35.8 | +$18.24 | 57% 12255-9317 (21572) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Leonid Sheyngezikhtavg 48¢ | $5.44 | $11.22 | +$5.78 | 47% 9215-10335 (19550) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Aren Baybarsavg 46.2¢ | $4.25 | $2 | -$2.25 | 50% 20715-20970 (41685) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Aren Baybarsavg 6¢ | $0.67 | $0.45 | -$0.22 | 46% 1383-1634 (3017) |
RN1Invested
$368.44
Value
$384.26
PnL
+$15.82
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$92.13
Value
$140.48
PnL
+$48.35
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
poshposh<$100Invested
$17.56
Value
$35.8
PnL
+$18.24
Record
57%
12255-9317 (21572)
Invested
$5.44
Value
$11.22
PnL
+$5.78
Record
47%
9215-10335 (19550)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$2
PnL
-$2.25
Record
50%
20715-20970 (41685)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.22
Record
46%
1383-1634 (3017)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.