Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Angelica Raggi, while the market favors Angela Fita Boluda (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W50 Heraklion: Angela Fita Boluda vs Angelica Raggi

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Angelica Raggi (57%) · Angelica Raggi at 0.1¢ · $234 held · ends Nov 11

Angela Fita Boluda>99¢Angelica Raggi<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Angelica Raggi

Consensus Traders

Angelica Raggi 57%

Total Value

$233.68

Combined PnL

-$52.97

Research grade

AvoidAngelica Raggi at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Angelica Raggi

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Angela Fita Boluda 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Angela Fita Boluda100%

Angelica Raggi0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Angela Fita Boluda3 traders

Total Value$162

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$10.2

Angelica Raggi4 traders

Total Value$71.68

Total Shares451

Combined PnL-$63.17

Angela Fita Boluda — 43%Angelica Raggi — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Angelica Raggi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAngelica Raggi 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAngelica Raggi 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Angelica Raggi 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnake<$100	Angela Fita Boludaavg 87.6¢	$71.86	$81.96	+$10.1	60% 4348-2912 (7260)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Angela Fita Boludaavg 72.8¢	$80.32	$75.04	+$0.25	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Angelica Raggiavg 20.1¢	$104.18	$48.54	-$55.63	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Angelica Raggiavg 28¢	$17.73	$13.3	-$4.43	47% 11071-12407 (23478)
poshposhCTR<$100	Angelica Raggiavg 28¢	$8.5	$6.37	-$2.12	57% 12266-9326 (21592)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Angela Fita Boludaavg 81¢	$5.15	$5	-$0.15	54% 6178-5224 (11402)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Angelica Raggiavg 27¢	$4.45	$3.46	-$0.98	52% 1158-1077 (2235)

thestingsnake<$100

Angela Fita Boluda

Invested

$71.86

Value

$81.96

PnL

+$10.1

Record

60%

4348-2912 (7260)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Angela Fita Boluda

Invested

$80.32

Value

$75.04

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

FlaznorpCTR

Angelica Raggi

Invested

$104.18

Value

$48.54

PnL

-$55.63

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Angelica Raggi

Invested

$17.73

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$4.43

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

poshposhCTR<$100

Angelica Raggi

Invested

$8.5

Value

$6.37

PnL

-$2.12

Record

57%

12266-9326 (21592)

Eulhunter<$100

Angela Fita Boluda

Invested

$5.15

Value

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

6178-5224 (11402)

VenusianCTR<$100

Angelica Raggi

Invested

$4.45

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$0.98

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

Research grade

AvoidAngelica Raggi at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Angelica Raggi

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Angela Fita Boluda 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Angelica Raggi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAngelica Raggi 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAngelica Raggi 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Angelica Raggi 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Angelica Raggi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.