M25 Heraklion: Etienne Donnet vs Oleksii Krutykh

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oleksii Krutykh (75%) · Oleksii Krutykh at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Etienne Donnet<1¢Oleksii Krutykh>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oleksii Krutykh

Consensus Traders

Oleksii Krutykh 75%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$416.96

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOleksii Krutykh at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oleksii Krutykh

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Etienne Donnet0%

Oleksii Krutykh100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oleksii Krutykh6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,988

Combined PnL+$599.9

Etienne Donnet2 traders

Total Value$14.98

Total Shares749

Combined PnL-$182.94

Oleksii Krutykh — 75%Etienne Donnet — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Oleksii Krutykh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOleksii Krutykh 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpOleksii Krutykh 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOleksii Krutykh 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOleksii Krutykh 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oleksii Krutykh 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Oleksii Krutykhavg 67¢	$557.21	$825.46	+$268.25	53% 59009-51318 (110327)
38 38791873984189	Oleksii Krutykhavg 68¢	$442.28	$649.47	+$207.19	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
OM omnibus-076daa	Oleksii Krutykhavg 77.9¢	$233.68	$299.73	+$66.05	50% 20158-20505 (40663)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Oleksii Krutykhavg 66.8¢	$114.24	$170.87	+$56.63	52% 6707-6232 (12939)
LO looppau<$100	Oleksii Krutykhavg 99.9¢	$35.96	$35.96	+$0	99% 11836-75 (11911)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Etienne Donnetavg 34.1¢	$170.53	$10	-$160.53	59% 31342-22017 (53359)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Oleksii Krutykhavg 68¢	$3.8	$5.58	+$1.78	46% 1294-1489 (2783)
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100	Etienne Donnetavg 33.2¢	$27.39	$4.98	-$22.41	51% 11626-11045 (22671)

RN1

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$557.21

Value

$825.46

PnL

+$268.25

Record

53%

59009-51318 (110327)

38791873984189

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$442.28

Value

$649.47

PnL

+$207.19

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

omnibus-076daa

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$233.68

Value

$299.73

PnL

+$66.05

Record

50%

20158-20505 (40663)

CandleHammerDrums

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$114.24

Value

$170.87

PnL

+$56.63

Record

52%

6707-6232 (12939)

looppau<$100

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$35.96

Value

$35.96

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

11836-75 (11911)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Etienne Donnet

Invested

$170.53

Value

$10

PnL

-$160.53

Record

59%

31342-22017 (53359)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Oleksii Krutykh

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5.58

PnL

+$1.78

Record

46%

1294-1489 (2783)

iWasEnoughCTR<$100

Etienne Donnet

Invested

$27.39

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$22.41

Record

51%

11626-11045 (22671)

Research grade

NeutralOleksii Krutykh at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Oleksii Krutykh

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Oleksii Krutykh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOleksii Krutykh 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpOleksii Krutykh 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOleksii Krutykh 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOleksii Krutykh 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Oleksii Krutykh 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oleksii Krutykh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.