W50 Chihuahua: Jessica Hinojosa Gomez vs Anastasia Zolotareva

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Anastasia Zolotareva (44%) · Anastasia Zolotareva at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 18

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez42¢Anastasia Zolotareva58¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anastasia Zolotareva

Consensus Traders

Anastasia Zolotareva 44%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$484.94

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 58.5¢

-24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnastasia Zolotareva at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anastasia Zolotareva

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez42%

Anastasia Zolotareva59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anastasia Zolotareva4 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares8,328

Combined PnL-$709.33

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez5 traders

Total Value$872.13

Total Shares2,767

Combined PnL+$224.39

Anastasia Zolotareva — 44%Jessica Hinojosa Gomez — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Anastasia Zolotareva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Anastasia Zolotareva) and the top 1000 (9 on Jessica Hinojosa Gomez) disagree here.

ctrAnastasia Zolotareva 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAnastasia Zolotareva 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jessica Hinojosa Gomez 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
00 0000.	Anastasia Zolotarevaavg 76.6¢	$6.3K	$5.6K	-$709.39	41% 9-13 (22)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 23.1¢	$556.39	$760.76	+$204.37	38% 137-222 (359)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 26¢	$52	$63.04	+$11.04	53% 5727-5123 (10850)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 24.1¢	$23.23	$30.41	+$7.18	48% 668-712 (1380)
RN1<$100	Anastasia Zolotarevaavg 63¢	$10.22	$11.1	+$0.89	57% 4030-3048 (7078)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 32.6¢	$11.1	$10.72	-$0.38	25% 125-374 (499)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Anastasia Zolotarevaavg 65.5¢	$8.51	$8.9	+$0.39	49% 102-107 (209)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Anastasia Zolotarevaavg 78¢	$10	$8.78	-$1.22	50% 47-47 (94)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Jessica Hinojosa Gomezavg 22¢	$5.02	$7.19	+$2.17	51% 1843-1797 (3640)

0000.

Anastasia Zolotareva

Invested

$6,343.82

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$709.39

Record

41%

9-13 (22)

LuckyLooCTR

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$556.39

Value

$760.76

PnL

+$204.37

Record

38%

137-222 (359)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$52

Value

$63.04

PnL

+$11.04

Record

53%

5727-5123 (10850)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$23.23

Value

$30.41

PnL

+$7.18

Record

48%

668-712 (1380)

RN1<$100

Anastasia Zolotareva

Invested

$10.22

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$0.89

Record

57%

4030-3048 (7078)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$11.1

Value

$10.72

PnL

-$0.38

Record

25%

125-374 (499)

Eulhunter<$100

Anastasia Zolotareva

Invested

$8.51

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$0.39

Record

49%

102-107 (209)

glennyorkshire<$100

Anastasia Zolotareva

Invested

$10

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

47-47 (94)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

Invested

$5.02

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$2.17

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

Research grade

NeutralAnastasia Zolotareva at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Anastasia Zolotareva

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Anastasia Zolotareva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Anastasia Zolotareva) and the top 1000 (9 on Jessica Hinojosa Gomez) disagree here.

ctrAnastasia Zolotareva 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAnastasia Zolotareva 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jessica Hinojosa Gomez 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anastasia Zolotareva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.