Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Vittoria Paganetti, while the market favors Lenka Munzarova (87%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W35 Liberec: Lenka Munzarova vs Vittoria Paganetti

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Vittoria Paganetti (67%) · Vittoria Paganetti at 14¢ · $946 held · ends Nov 11

Lenka Munzarova87¢Vittoria Paganetti13¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Vittoria Paganetti

Consensus Traders

Vittoria Paganetti 67%

Total Value

$946.11

Combined PnL

$69.43

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 13.5¢

-71% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidVittoria Paganetti at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vittoria Paganetti

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Lenka Munzarova 87%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lenka Munzarova87%

Vittoria Paganetti14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vittoria Paganetti4 traders

Total Value$702.86

Total Shares1,053

Combined PnL+$216.7

Lenka Munzarova2 traders

Total Value$243.26

Total Shares726

Combined PnL-$147.27

Vittoria Paganetti — 67%Lenka Munzarova — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Vittoria Paganettiavg 45.8¢	$404.66	$584.76	+$180.09	53% 60028-52398 (112426)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Lenka Munzarovaavg 53.5¢	$382.89	$239.71	-$143.19	53% 3359-2942 (6301)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Vittoria Paganettiavg 45.9¢	$73.92	$107.07	+$33.15	51% 24195-22931 (47126)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Vittoria Paganettiavg 47¢	$5.17	$7.32	+$2.15	47% 11057-12380 (23437)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Vittoria Paganettiavg 43¢	$2.4	$3.72	+$1.31	46% 1380-1627 (3007)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Lenka Munzarovaavg 72.1¢	$7.63	$3.55	-$4.09	82% 6995-1503 (8498)

RN1CTR

Vittoria Paganetti

Invested

$404.66

Value

$584.76

PnL

+$180.09

Record

53%

60028-52398 (112426)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Lenka Munzarova

Invested

$382.89

Value

$239.71

PnL

-$143.19

Record

53%

3359-2942 (6301)

FlaznorpCTR

Vittoria Paganetti

Invested

$73.92

Value

$107.07

PnL

+$33.15

Record

51%

24195-22931 (47126)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Vittoria Paganetti

Invested

$5.17

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$2.15

Record

47%

11057-12380 (23437)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Vittoria Paganetti

Invested

$2.4

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$1.31

Record

46%

1380-1627 (3007)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Lenka Munzarova

Invested

$7.63

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$4.09

Record

82%

6995-1503 (8498)

Research grade

AvoidVittoria Paganetti at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Vittoria Paganetti

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Lenka Munzarova 87%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vittoria Paganetti wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.