Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Zuzanna Pawlikowska, while the market favors Sofia Johnson (63%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W50 Chihuahua: Zuzanna Pawlikowska vs Sofia Johnson

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Zuzanna Pawlikowska (40%) · Zuzanna Pawlikowska at 37¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Zuzanna Pawlikowska37¢Sofia Johnson63¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Consensus Traders

Zuzanna Pawlikowska 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$578.16

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 37¢

-45% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralZuzanna Pawlikowska at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Sofia Johnson 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Zuzanna Pawlikowska37%

Sofia Johnson63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zuzanna Pawlikowska2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,205

Combined PnL+$204.38

Sofia Johnson3 traders

Total Value$815.1

Total Shares1,339

Combined PnL+$373.78

Zuzanna Pawlikowska — 40%Sofia Johnson — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Zuzanna Pawlikowska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Zuzanna Pawlikowska) and the top 1000 (5 on Sofia Johnson) disagree here.

ctrSofia Johnson 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedZuzanna Pawlikowska 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sofia Johnson 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 67.2¢	$836.63	$1.0K	+$202.67	58% 3771-2731 (6502)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sofia Johnsonavg 32.8¢	$437.49	$813.13	+$375.64	54% 1645-1416 (3061)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 64.9¢	$160.92	$184.7	+$23.79	48% 939-1010 (1949)
└ Sofia Johnson leg	Sofia Johnsonavg 26.6¢	$52.7	$112.97	+$60.27
└ Zuzanna Pawlikowska leg	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 64.9¢	$108.21	$71.73	-$36.48
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 44¢	$3.14	$4.86	+$1.71	20% 91-357 (448)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Sofia Johnsonavg 70¢	$3.5	$1.65	-$1.85	38% 215-345 (560)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Sofia Johnsonavg 33¢	$0.33	$0.32	-$0.01	24% 107-332 (439)

RN1CTR

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$836.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$202.67

Record

58%

3771-2731 (6502)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$437.49

Value

$813.13

PnL

+$375.64

Record

54%

1645-1416 (3061)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$160.92

Value

$184.7

PnL

+$23.79

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Both legs:

Sofia Johnson$52.726.6¢+$60.27

Zuzanna Pawlikowska$108.2164.9¢-$36.48

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$3.14

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$1.71

Record

20%

91-357 (448)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$3.5

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$1.85

Record

38%

215-345 (560)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.01

Record

24%

107-332 (439)

Research grade

NeutralZuzanna Pawlikowska at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Sofia Johnson 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Zuzanna Pawlikowska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Zuzanna Pawlikowska) and the top 1000 (5 on Sofia Johnson) disagree here.

ctrSofia Johnson 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedZuzanna Pawlikowska 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sofia Johnson 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zuzanna Pawlikowska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.