M25 Valencia: Izan Almazan Valiente vs Yanaki Milev

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Izan Almazan Valiente (71%) · Izan Almazan Valiente at 100¢ · $347 held · ends Nov 10

Izan Almazan Valiente>99¢Yanaki Milev<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Izan Almazan Valiente

Consensus Traders

Izan Almazan Valiente 71%

Total Value

$346.83

Combined PnL

$22.12

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 100¢

+112% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralIzan Almazan Valiente at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Izan Almazan Valiente

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Izan Almazan Valiente100%

Yanaki Milev0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Izan Almazan Valiente5 traders

Total Value$346.73

Total Shares479

Combined PnL+$121.39

Yanaki Milev2 traders

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$99.27

Izan Almazan Valiente — 71%Yanaki Milev — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Izan Almazan Valiente. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yanaki Milev) and the top 1000 (6 on Izan Almazan Valiente) disagree here.

whaleIzan Almazan Valiente 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrIzan Almazan Valiente 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYanaki Milev 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Izan Almazan Valiente 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Izan Almazan Valienteavg 45.9¢	$105.1	$228.88	+$123.79	51% 23358-22138 (45496)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Izan Almazan Valienteavg 48¢	$96	$80	-$16	47% 10535-11772 (22307)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Izan Almazan Valienteavg 50¢	$14.99	$29.99	+$14.99	48% 6138-6543 (12681)
CI cigarettes<$100	Izan Almazan Valienteavg 47¢	$6.89	$5.86	-$1.03	54% 22016-19110 (41126)
HRTrading<$100	Izan Almazan Valienteavg 47.2¢	$2.36	$2	-$0.36	51% 7310-7059 (14369)
RN1CTR<$100	Yanaki Milevavg 52.2¢	$96.58	$0.09	-$96.48	53% 58932-51258 (110190)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yanaki Milevavg 17.2¢	$2.79	$0.01	-$2.78	47% 1289-1483 (2772)

Flaznorp

Izan Almazan Valiente

Invested

$105.1

Value

$228.88

PnL

+$123.79

Record

51%

23358-22138 (45496)

topdogbigboi<$100

Izan Almazan Valiente

Invested

$96

Value

$80

PnL

-$16

Record

47%

10535-11772 (22307)

ferdinand2<$100

Izan Almazan Valiente

Invested

$14.99

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$14.99

Record

48%

6138-6543 (12681)

cigarettes<$100

Izan Almazan Valiente

Invested

$6.89

Value

$5.86

PnL

-$1.03

Record

54%

22016-19110 (41126)

HRTrading<$100

Izan Almazan Valiente

Invested

$2.36

Value

PnL

-$0.36

Record

51%

7310-7059 (14369)

RN1CTR<$100

Yanaki Milev

Invested

$96.58

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$96.48

Record

53%

58932-51258 (110190)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yanaki Milev

Invested

$2.79

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.78

Record

47%

1289-1483 (2772)

Research grade

NeutralIzan Almazan Valiente at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Izan Almazan Valiente

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Izan Almazan Valiente. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yanaki Milev) and the top 1000 (6 on Izan Almazan Valiente) disagree here.

whaleIzan Almazan Valiente 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrIzan Almazan Valiente 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYanaki Milev 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Izan Almazan Valiente 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Izan Almazan Valiente wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.