W50 Yokohama: Yuhan Wang vs Sayaka Ishii
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yuhan Wang (83%) · Yuhan Wang at 72¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Yuhan Wang
6
Yuhan Wang 83%
$2.4K
-$17.82
58.8¢ → 72¢
+22% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYuhan Wang at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Yuhan Wangavg 65¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | +$65.65 | 48% 1171-1252 (2423) |
 RN1 | Yuhan Wangavg 53¢ | $991.82 | $894.86 | -$96.95 | 57% 3975-2973 (6948) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Sayaka Ishiiavg 33.1¢ | $183.43 | $221.93 | +$38.5 | 27% 141-378 (519) |
CI cigarettes | Yuhan Wangavg 60.3¢ | $103.14 | $100.89 | -$2.25 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Yuhan Wangavg 86¢ | $49.99 | $27.9 | -$22.09 | 27% 172-461 (633) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Yuhan Wangavg 50¢ | $17 | $16.32 | -$0.68 | 53% 1745-1547 (3292) |
Invested
$1,286.25
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$65.65
Record
48%
1171-1252 (2423)
RN1Invested
$991.82
Value
$894.86
PnL
-$96.95
Record
57%
3975-2973 (6948)
Invested
$183.43
Value
$221.93
PnL
+$38.5
Record
27%
141-378 (519)
Invested
$103.14
Value
$100.89
PnL
-$2.25
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Invested
$49.99
Value
$27.9
PnL
-$22.09
Record
27%
172-461 (633)
Invested
$17
Value
$16.32
PnL
-$0.68
Record
53%
1745-1547 (3292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.