W75 Brisbane: Wushuang Zheng vs Zhuoxuan Bai

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Zhuoxuan Bai (100%) · Zhuoxuan Bai at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 17

Wushuang Zheng4¢Zhuoxuan Bai96¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zhuoxuan Bai

Consensus Traders

Zhuoxuan Bai 100%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$294.48

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 95.7¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralZhuoxuan Bai at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zhuoxuan Bai

8 of 8 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wushuang Zheng4%

Zhuoxuan Bai96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zhuoxuan Bai8 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,539

Combined PnL+$294.48

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Zhuoxuan Bai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Zhuoxuan Bai 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 85.9¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$134.21	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
RN1	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 78.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$82.25	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
38 38791873984189	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 84.6¢	$561.19	$501.73	+$19.09	48% 603-645 (1248)
OM omnibus-076daa	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 84¢	$260.53	$281.3	+$37.14	34% 147-291 (438)
TH thestingsnake	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 84¢	$153.93	$161.24	+$11.91	14% 51-322 (373)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 85¢	$80.7	$87.34	+$6.65	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
PA Pan9X<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 63¢	$4.22	$6.17	+$2.18	47% 329-371 (700)
LR lryyy<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 71¢	$3.55	$4.6	+$1.05	50% 109-109 (218)

Flaznorp

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$1,863.64

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$134.21

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

RN1

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$1,142.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$82.25

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

38791873984189

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$561.19

Value

$501.73

PnL

+$19.09

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

omnibus-076daa

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$260.53

Value

$281.3

PnL

+$37.14

Record

34%

147-291 (438)

thestingsnake

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$153.93

Value

$161.24

PnL

+$11.91

Record

14%

51-322 (373)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$80.7

Value

$87.34

PnL

+$6.65

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

Pan9X<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$4.22

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$2.18

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

lryyy<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$3.55

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

109-109 (218)

Research grade

NeutralZhuoxuan Bai at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Zhuoxuan Bai

8 of 8 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Zhuoxuan Bai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Zhuoxuan Bai 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zhuoxuan Bai wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.