Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-09-06?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 56¢ · $16K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$15.7K
$-7.4K
55.7¢ → 56¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $7.4K | $7.1K | $-7.4K | 49% 193-199 (392) |
 RN1 | Noavg 55¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | +$96.11 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$72 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 78¢ | $431.9 | $310.18 | -$121.72 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $10.74 | $11.14 | +$0.4 | 74% 2423-864 (3287) |
Invested
$7,421.55
Value
$7.1K
PnL
$-7.4K
Record
49%
193-199 (392)
RN1Invested
$5,511.73
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$96.11
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,615.98
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$72
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$431.9
Value
$310.18
PnL
-$121.72
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10.74
Value
$11.14
PnL
+$0.4
Record
74%
2423-864 (3287)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.