JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 80¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 30

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 79.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,889

Combined PnL+$472.93

No1 trader

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares8,362

Combined PnL+$773.27

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

391h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST Stonktrader	Yesavg 80.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$27.02	74% 168-59 (227)
SN SnoorrasonCTR	Noavg 11.4¢	$941.04	$1.7K	+$773.27	39% 1181-1881 (3062)
Nadmi	Yesavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$459.89	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 89¢	$890	$800	-$95	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
PaddyAlpha	Yesavg 64.2¢	$568.21	$692.39	+$135.06	59% 986-684 (1670)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$30.94	$30.94	+$0	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

Stonktrader

Yes

Invested

$2,379.42

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$27.02

Record

74%

168-59 (227)

SnoorrasonCTR

Invested

$941.04

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$773.27

Record

39%

1181-1881 (3062)

Nadmi

Yes

Invested

$1,165.06

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$459.89

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$890

Value

$800

PnL

-$95

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

PaddyAlpha

Yes

Invested

$568.21

Value

$692.39

PnL

+$135.06

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.94

Value

$30.94

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

391h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.1%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.