JD Vance out as VP by December 31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $12K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$12.0K
-$550.4
93¢ → 96.2¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Late
3528h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 92.7¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$81.13 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 94.1¢ | $4.4K | $2.6K | +$72.89 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 siick | Noavg 91¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$123.75 | 57% 768-580 (1348) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 94.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$17.27 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
KE Kevindoto | Noavg 94¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$22.32 | 80% 437-110 (547) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.6K | $736.44 | -$867.77 | 40% 704-1062 (1766) |
DEGENKHANInvested
$3,728.27
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$81.13
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
Invested
$4,431.99
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$72.89
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
siickInvested
$2,288.74
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$123.75
Record
57%
768-580 (1348)
Invested
$1,254.85
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$17.27
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$1,134.23
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$22.32
Record
80%
437-110 (547)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$1,613.27
Value
$736.44
PnL
-$867.77
Record
40%
704-1062 (1766)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.