Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 31
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Research candidate
No
6
No 100%
$5.0K
$668.84
79.5¢ → 92¢
+16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 92%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 83.9¢ | $2.7K | $3.0K | +$264.33 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
 Valen9 | Noavg 72.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$301.23 | 60% 407-274 (681) |
 vinii | Noavg 74.5¢ | $327.51 | $404.48 | +$76.97 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
 Nostdam<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $42.62 | $59.62 | +$16.99 | 54% 1434-1230 (2664) |
PU PutsOnPeace<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $42.92 | $51.61 | +$8.7 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 PMTraderAdam<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $2.77 | $3.39 | +$0.63 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
Parz1vaIInvested
$2,732.76
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$264.33
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Valen9Invested
$1,190.59
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$301.23
Record
60%
407-274 (681)
viniiInvested
$327.51
Value
$404.48
PnL
+$76.97
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Nostdam<$100Invested
$42.62
Value
$59.62
PnL
+$16.99
Record
54%
1434-1230 (2664)
Invested
$42.92
Value
$51.61
PnL
+$8.7
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
PMTraderAdam<$100Invested
$2.77
Value
$3.39
PnL
+$0.63
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.