Consensus PnL $235K · win rate 63% (347–206, n=553) · was PM monthly #639 · holds 50 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$234.8K
Record
347W / 206L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 553 settled
Batting Avg
51.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1013
Source
PM monthly #639 + pinned
Trades
38,895
Markets
857
Volume
$9.8M
Top consensus positions
50 in listed consensus markets · 31 of 50 on the consensus side (62%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $69K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $50K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $47K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $23K · now 72¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31?No $21K · now 65¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $17K · now 36¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (79% of 29)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $16K · now 75¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (No)
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No $15K · now 81¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
Specialties
654 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 67¢- Mentions
+24 pts
side won 100% of 17 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +17%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 65% of 356 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +2%
- Crypto
+18 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +34%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 38% of 16 at an average 53¢ entry (−16 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 7% of 128)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 41% of 58)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 72% of 67)
- 70¢ and up: 61%(won 93% of 401)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.