Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FC Astana win on 2026-09-06?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 42¢ · $324 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$323.53
-$29.39
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Noavg 37.8¢ | $316.99 | $211.7 | +$17.19 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 37.8¢ | $113.35 | $124.5 | +$17.94 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59¢ | $87.95 | $87.2 | -$0.75 | |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Yesavg 93.2¢ | $79.5 | $49.91 | -$29.59 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $47.7 | $46.89 | -$0.81 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $12.17 | $12.95 | +$0.78 | 44% 6474-8170 (14644) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $2.07 | +$0.22 | 74% 2421-862 (3283) |
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$316.99
Value
$211.7
PnL
+$17.19
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.5
Value
$49.91
PnL
-$29.59
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
Invested
$47.7
Value
$46.89
PnL
-$0.81
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
Invested
$12.17
Value
$12.95
PnL
+$0.78
Record
44%
6474-8170 (14644)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$1.85
Value
$2.07
PnL
+$0.22
Record
74%
2421-862 (3283)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.