Exact Score: Athletic Club 3 - 1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$8.86
94.3¢ → 73.3¢
-22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.6¢ | $666.92 | $676.79 | +$9.87 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $562.9 | $589.44 | +$26.54 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 94.3¢ | $471.59 | $442.75 | -$28.84 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $91.31 | $146.69 | +$55.38 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $18.85 | $18.39 | -$0.47 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $9.41 | $9.6 | +$0.19 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 77.6¢ | $9.15 | $8.35 | -$0.8 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $2.06 | $2.12 | +$0.06 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
Invested
$666.92
Value
$676.79
PnL
+$9.87
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$562.9
Value
$589.44
PnL
+$26.54
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$18.85
Value
$18.39
PnL
-$0.47
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$9.41
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0.19
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$9.15
Value
$8.35
PnL
-$0.8
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$2.06
Value
$2.12
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.