Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 1 Athletic Club?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$1.4K
$101.51
87.5¢ → 49.5¢
-43% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $170.06 | $575.8 | +$405.73 | 56% 7891-6217 (14108) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 87¢ | $870 | $495 | -$375 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 10¢ | $38.07 | $192.25 | +$154.18 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 89.5¢ | $187.09 | $103.5 | -$83.59 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $0.9 | $11.6 | +$10.7 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $16.67 | $9.18 | -$7.49 | 58% 19424-14279 (33703) |
YO youcanbuythisbotCTR<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $8.07 | $3.99 | -$3.03 | 64% 8672-4799 (13471) |
Invested
$170.06
Value
$575.8
PnL
+$405.73
Record
56%
7891-6217 (14108)
Invested
$870
Value
$495
PnL
-$375
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$38.07
Value
$192.25
PnL
+$154.18
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$187.09
Value
$103.5
PnL
-$83.59
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$11.6
PnL
+$10.7
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
Invested
$16.67
Value
$9.18
PnL
-$7.49
Record
58%
19424-14279 (33703)
Invested
$8.07
Value
$3.99
PnL
-$3.03
Record
64%
8672-4799 (13471)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.