Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 10

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$511.16

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 72.5¢

-22% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,511

Combined PnL-$309.64

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,294

Combined PnL+$820.8

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dips.	Underavg 93¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$308.67	46% 7315-8501 (15816)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 8.1¢	$189.27	$642.2	+$452.93	51% 17610-16613 (34223)
MI MinevaJCTR	Overavg 7¢	$70.7	$277.75	+$207.05	57% 1076-812 (1888)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 11¢	$94.26	$235.76	+$141.5	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$5	$22.92	+$17.92	50% 11447-11290 (22737)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 92¢	$5	$3.63	-$0.98	46% 7928-9254 (17182)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$0.8	$2.2	+$1.4	58% 11427-8282 (19709)

dips.

Under

Invested

$1,400.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$308.67

Record

46%

7315-8501 (15816)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$189.27

Value

$642.2

PnL

+$452.93

Record

51%

17610-16613 (34223)

MinevaJCTR

Over

Invested

$70.7

Value

$277.75

PnL

+$207.05

Record

57%

1076-812 (1888)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$94.26

Value

$235.76

PnL

+$141.5

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$22.92

PnL

+$17.92

Record

50%

11447-11290 (22737)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.63

PnL

-$0.98

Record

46%

7928-9254 (17182)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.8

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

11427-8282 (19709)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.