Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (38%) · Bilibili Gaming at 57¢ · $107K held · ends Nov 15

Gen.G43¢Bilibili Gaming57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bilibili Gaming

Consensus Traders

Bilibili Gaming 38%

Total Value

$107.5K

Combined PnL

-$796.03

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 57.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Gen.G43%

Bilibili Gaming57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gen.G5 traders

Total Value$47.1K

Total Shares112,202

Combined PnL+$39.78

Bilibili Gaming3 traders

Total Value$60.3K

Total Shares105,862

Combined PnL-$835.82

Gen.G — 63%Bilibili Gaming — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBilibili Gaming 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGen.G 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedGen.G 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR	Gen.Gavg 42¢	$42.2K	$42.2K	+$0	51% 708-691 (1399)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Bilibili Gamingavg 58¢	$25.8K	$25.3K	-$444.44	62% 1003-623 (1626)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69	Bilibili Gamingavg 58¢	$22.7K	$22.3K	-$391.38	0% 0-27 (27)
Anjun	Bilibili Gamingavg 57¢	$12.7K	$12.7K	-$0	79% 1552-422 (1974)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Gen.Gavg 42¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0	39% 1043-1627 (2670)
TA taemaxxCTR	Gen.Gavg 41¢	$820	$840	+$20	— 2-1 (3)
NO Novelty8CTR	Gen.Gavg 41¢	$811.07	$830.86	+$19.78	2% 3-155 (158)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Gen.Gavg 42¢	$745.92	$745.92	+$0	—

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18CTR

Gen.G

Invested

$42,172.68

Value

$42.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

708-691 (1399)

PacersThreeandahalf

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$25,777.52

Value

$25.3K

PnL

-$444.44

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$22,733.07

Value

$22.3K

PnL

-$391.38

Record

0-27 (27)

Anjun

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$12,666.53

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

79%

1552-422 (1974)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Gen.G

Invested

$2,535.37

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1043-1627 (2670)

taemaxxCTR

Gen.G

Invested

$820

Value

$840

PnL

+$20

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Novelty8CTR

Gen.G

Invested

$811.07

Value

$830.86

PnL

+$19.78

Record

3-155 (158)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Gen.G

Invested

$745.92

Value

$745.92

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralBilibili Gaming at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bilibili Gaming

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Bilibili Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperBilibili Gaming 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGen.G 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedGen.G 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Gen.G 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bilibili Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.