Consensus PnL $28K · win rate 55% (733–600, n=1333) · was PM monthly #827 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$28.1K
Record
733W / 600L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 1333 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1447
Source
PM monthly #827
Trades
37
Markets
1,359
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $4.4K · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Raiders vs. JetsRaiders $1.0K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Jets)
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Over $952 · now 50¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (40% of 11)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Nuno Borges vs Alex MolcanNuno Borges $737 · now 0¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Alex Molcan)
- Curitiba: Alice Tubello vs Julia GrabherAlice Tubello $170 · now 18¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (69% of 15)
Specialties
713 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 57¢- MLB
+50 pts
side won 100% of 105 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +51%
- College Football
+51 pts
side won 100% of 48 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +53%
- Soccer
+47 pts
side won 100% of 71 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +51%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 100% of 218)
- 50–70¢: 41%(won 100% of 291)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 100% of 174)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.