Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.9K
$156.17
62.1¢ → 71¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
194h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PK pkz | Noavg 66.4¢ | $642.23 | $701.31 | +$59.08 | 58% 469-346 (815) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 58.4¢ | $552.77 | $652.19 | +$99.42 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
 Optimus-CTR | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $215.27 | $200.45 | -$14.82 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $194.62 | $182.95 | -$5.51 | — 7-2 (9) |
 tetrase | Noavg 58¢ | $116 | $145 | +$29 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $24.5 | $8.75 | -$11 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$642.23
Value
$701.31
PnL
+$59.08
Record
58%
469-346 (815)
StarMasterInvested
$552.77
Value
$652.19
PnL
+$99.42
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
Optimus-CTRInvested
$215.27
Value
$200.45
PnL
-$14.82
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
Invested
$194.62
Value
$182.95
PnL
-$5.51
Record
—
7-2 (9)
tetraseInvested
$116
Value
$145
PnL
+$29
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$8.75
PnL
-$11
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.