Consensus PnL $68K · win rate 60% (446–298, n=744) · PM monthly #974 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$67.7K
Record
446W / 298L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 744 settled
Batting Avg
44.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1156
Source
PM monthly #974
Trades
907
Markets
946
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 10 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $30K · now 84¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (73% of 49)
- Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $23K · now 85¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (64% of 12)
- Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Yes $21K · now 85¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?Yes $3.1K · now 54¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $2.4K · now 85¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (58% of 12)
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?No $1.3K · now 28¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?No $701 · now 73¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Yes $567 · now 68¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
812 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 56¢- Mentions
+6 pts
side won 55% of 150 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +5%
- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 65% of 102 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +3%
- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 59% of 155 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 69% of 13 at an average 78¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI −14%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 20% of 246)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 40% of 91)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 65% of 120)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 93% of 355)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.