Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.2K
$371.05
54.2¢ → 94.9¢
+75% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
4829h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 41.4¢ | $580.24 | $1.3K | +$718.2 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $475.45 | $298.32 | -$177.13 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 80.6¢ | $306.32 | $281.92 | -$24.39 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 timebrotime | Noavg 94¢ | $205.86 | $208.27 | +$2.85 | 67% 893-435 (1328) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $232.23 | $74.95 | -$148.84 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $26.68 | $27.05 | +$0.37 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
XieGuangKunInvested
$580.24
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$718.2
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
Invested
$475.45
Value
$298.32
PnL
-$177.13
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$306.32
Value
$281.92
PnL
-$24.39
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
timebrotimeInvested
$205.86
Value
$208.27
PnL
+$2.85
Record
67%
893-435 (1328)
Invested
$232.23
Value
$74.95
PnL
-$148.84
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Invested
$26.68
Value
$27.05
PnL
+$0.37
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.