Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Orlando City SC vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to Score

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 43¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$227.59

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 42.5¢

-40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,655

Combined PnL+$793.02

Yes4 traders

Total Value$990.43

Total Shares2,060

Combined PnL-$565.43

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 28.4¢	$368.45	$747.17	+$378.71	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
LI Limousin	Noavg 27.5¢	$270.45	$565.31	+$294.86	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 73.9¢	$465.72	$443.96	-$21.76	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ No leg	Noavg 27.4¢	$115.39	$242.39	+$127
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73.9¢	$350.33	$201.56	-$148.76
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 73¢	$610.82	$355.61	-$255.21	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 73.2¢	$590.54	$343.02	-$247.52	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$200	$200	-$0	— 1-0 (1)
VE Venusian	Noavg 25.3¢	$85.03	$193.26	+$108.24	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 71.7¢	$161.25	$91.8	-$62.7	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 27¢	$9.92	$21.13	+$11.21	48% 1776-1912 (3688)

LightParadox

Invested

$368.45

Value

$747.17

PnL

+$378.71

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Limousin

Invested

$270.45

Value

$565.31

PnL

+$294.86

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$465.72

Value

$443.96

PnL

-$21.76

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

No$115.3927.4¢+$127

Yes$350.3373.9¢-$148.76

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$610.82

Value

$355.61

PnL

-$255.21

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$590.54

Value

$343.02

PnL

-$247.52

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

-$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Venusian

Invested

$85.03

Value

$193.26

PnL

+$108.24

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$161.25

Value

$91.8

PnL

-$62.7

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$21.13

PnL

+$11.21

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.