Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (63%) · Wizards at 60¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Hawks41¢Wizards59¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$5.77

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 59.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hawks41%

Wizards60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,260

Combined PnL-$26.02

Hawks3 traders

Total Value$728.45

Total Shares1,763

Combined PnL+$20.25

Wizards — 63%Hawks — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Wizardsavg 60.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$35.9	54% 18039-15167 (33206)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Wizardsavg 59.5¢	$370.57	$369.34	-$1.23	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 59.5¢	$197.55	$194.21	-$3.34
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 41¢	$173.02	$175.13	+$2.11
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Hawksavg 40¢	$354.8	$368.1	+$13.3	60% 4421-2917 (7338)
nigiri99	Wizardsavg 58.2¢	$288.24	$294.53	+$6.28	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hawksavg 40.5¢	$231.4	$236.82	+$5.42	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hawksavg 40¢	$122	$123.53	+$1.53	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
RN1<$100	Wizardsavg 55¢	$92.2	$97.86	+$5.66	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
GH ghorrock<$100	Wizardsavg 58¢	$18.78	$18.13	-$0.65	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
VeryLucky888<$100	Wizardsavg 58¢	$36.36	$18.1	-$1.42	58% 45442-32918 (78360)

HomeRunHazard

Wizards

Invested

$1,744.81

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$35.9

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

NM-PARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$370.57

Value

$369.34

PnL

-$1.23

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

Wizards$197.5559.5¢-$3.34

Hawks$173.0241¢+$2.11

SunlineTickerCTR

Hawks

Invested

$354.8

Value

$368.1

PnL

+$13.3

Record

60%

4421-2917 (7338)

nigiri99

Wizards

Invested

$288.24

Value

$294.53

PnL

+$6.28

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

FlaznorpCTR

Hawks

Invested

$231.4

Value

$236.82

PnL

+$5.42

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

38791873984189CTR

Hawks

Invested

$122

Value

$123.53

PnL

+$1.53

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

RN1<$100

Wizards

Invested

$92.2

Value

$97.86

PnL

+$5.66

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

ghorrock<$100

Wizards

Invested

$18.78

Value

$18.13

PnL

-$0.65

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

VeryLucky888<$100

Wizards

Invested

$36.36

Value

$18.1

PnL

-$1.42

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.