Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nets vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 39¢ · $216 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
$216.4
$8.51
56¢ → 38.5¢
-31% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 56¢ | $192.08 | $200.66 | +$8.57 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $6.46 | $6.37 | -$0.09 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $2.54 | $2.73 | +$0.19 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $2.46 | $2.49 | +$0.03 | 55% 680-552 (1232) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.07 | -$0.13 | — 7-5 (12) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.07 | -$0.07 | 34% 327-634 (961) |
Invested
$192.08
Value
$200.66
PnL
+$8.57
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$6.46
Value
$6.37
PnL
-$0.09
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.54
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.19
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$2.49
PnL
+$0.03
Record
55%
680-552 (1232)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$0.13
Record
—
7-5 (12)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$0.07
Record
34%
327-634 (961)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.